The forecast for global smartphone shipments in 2022: a decrease of 6.5% to 1.27 billion units.
Release time:
2022-09-02
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On August 31, U.S. research firm IDC announced that it now forecasts global smartphone shipments in 2022 will decline by 6.5% year-on-year, reaching 1.27 billion units. This forecast has been revised downward from three months ago—when the company had projected a 3.5% annual decrease to 1.31 billion units—due to a sharp drop in consumer demand caused by high inflation, escalating geopolitical tensions, and other macroeconomic disruptions.
By region, the forecast is expected to decline annually. From 12.5% to 41 million units, with a notable decline in China—the world’s largest market. The company recently announced that smartphone shipments in China from April to June totaled 67.2 million units. This represents a 14.7% decrease compared to the same period last year, due to a resurgence of COVID-19 infections and sluggish sales following lockdowns.
Elsewhere, the economic crisis has hit emerging markets, with Central and Eastern Europe experiencing a year-on-year decline. 17.4%. The Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan and China), initially projected to grow by 3.0%, has now been revised down to a decline of 4.5%.
On the other hand, in developed markets, North America and Canada maintained positive growth, increasing by [amount] respectively. 0.3% and 3.2%. Western Europe is also expected to maintain slight negative growth, declining by 0.7%.
Shipments of 5G (fifth-generation mobile communication standard)-compatible smartphones in 2022 are expected to increase by 23.6% year-on-year, reaching 688 million units. This figure has been slightly revised downward from the previously forecasted approximately 700 million units.
“Since last year, the supply shortages have eased, and the market has shifted to a situation of insufficient demand,” said Nabila Popal, Research Director for Mobile and Consumer Devices at IDC. “Due to declining demand and excessive inventory in the distribution channels, OEMs are feeling panicked, leading to a significant reduction in orders for 2022. As a result, our forecast for smartphone shipments in 2022 is 150 million units lower than our prediction from a year ago.”
However, IDC expects the decline in shipments to be short-term, with growth returning to positive territory at 5.2% in 2023.
Expected by Over the next five years, growth will continue to average 1.4% per year.
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